Toezicht als voorbode van crisis

Vertrekkend DNB-bestuurder Jan Sijbrand ziet drie voorbodes voor een volgende crisis. Daarvan hebben er twee direct te maken met toezicht: toezicht is het momentum verloren het is te verbrokkeld.

Sijbrand ziet een eerste signaal van een nieuwe crisis in de condities op de leveraged finance market.

Een tweede voorbode is de roep om proportioneel toezicht, die vergezeld gaat van zorgen over de kosten van toezicht.

De derde aanwijzing schuilt in de fragmentatie en gebrek aan coördinatie. Daarmee is er een risico op blinde vlekken, op “ongereguleerde situaties”.

Lees hier de passage over de voorbodes van een nieuwe crisis:

The period ahead of us is also interesting as we will have to watch out for the next crisis. Three harbingers of a new crisis are on the horizon, or have even already appeared:

Firstly: in the Leveraged Finance market, always a sensitive indicator of the credit cycle, conditions are weakening.

Secondly, supervision has lost its momentum. The focus is no longer on the rules, on increasing the safety of the sector. It has shifted once again onto jobs, onto growth. At times like these we can expect to see growing calls for more proportional supervision. This is already the case, and these calls are accompanied by concerns about the mounting costs of financial supervision…

The third harbinger is fragmentation and a lack of coordination across different areas of risk control and supervision. During the last crisis, this issue centered on asset backed securities which slipped through, between market risk control and credit risk control. At the moment you can see something similar with financial market infrastructures. In particular central counterparty clearing houses, falling in between payment services oversight and prudential supervision.

A third example is the anti-money laundering supervision and prudential supervision: one could argue that they are not optimally tuned… As it now stands, in some places there are partitions between institutions. This hampers coordination. And as a result, important risks can slip between the established institutions or departments…

The fragmentation I mentioned can lead to blind spots, to unregulated situations. People may think that they don’t have to deal with an issue because it’s actually someone else’s responsibility. But in the end no one deals with it.

Lees hier de hele speech: Interesting times ahead.

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